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Japan Posts November Trade Surplus as U.S. Shipments Rebound

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Japan’s exports rose sharply in November, increasing 6% from a year earlier, as shipments to the United States recorded their first year-on-year gain since March amid easing tariff-related uncertainty.

Preliminary government data showed imports also edged higher, up 1.3% from the previous year, resulting in a trade surplus of 322.2 billion yen, equivalent to about $2.1 billion.

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Exports to the U.S. climbed nearly 9%, supported by stronger sales of automobiles, chemicals and cameras, which offset weaker demand for machinery and iron and steel. On the import side, purchases from the U.S. expanded significantly, led by a near tripling of crude oil imports and solid increases in grain and other food products.

The recovery in auto shipments followed Japan’s tariff agreement with the Trump administration, which set a baseline import duty of 15% for most products instead of the previously proposed 25%. Passenger car exports rose 8% in volume terms, though the overall value of vehicle exports increased by only 1.5%, suggesting manufacturers absorbed much of the higher tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers.

Imports from the United States rose more than 7%, yet Japan still recorded a sizable bilateral trade surplus of 739.8 billion yen, up 11% from a year earlier.

Trade with Europe also strengthened, with exports to the European Union jumping around 20%, driven by higher demand for machinery, vehicles and other manufactured goods. In contrast, exports to China declined 2.4%, reflecting weaker shipments of chemicals, machinery and vehicles amid heightened political tensions.

Despite the recent improvement in U.S.-bound shipments, analysts caution that elevated tariffs are likely to remain a headwind for Japan’s export sector. However, expectations for the year ahead are more optimistic, with stronger U.S. investment particularly in artificial intelligence-related industries seen as a potential source of support for Japanese exports.

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