Metalforming manufacturers are showing rising optimism for economic activity and order growth in early 2026, even as current shipping levels remain under pressure, according to the December 2025 Business Conditions Report released by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).
The monthly report, which surveys 82 metalforming companies across the United States and Canada, serves as a forward-looking indicator for manufacturing activity over the next three months. The latest data points to improving sentiment as manufacturers look ahead to the first quarter of 2026.
According to the survey, 26% of respondents expect an increase in general economic activity over the next three months, nearly doubling from 14% in November. A majority of manufacturers—57%—anticipate stable conditions, up from 51% a month earlier, while only 17% expect a decline in activity, down sharply from 35% in November.
Expectations for incoming orders also strengthened. Nearly half of respondents (48%) forecast an increase in orders in the coming three months, compared with 31% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, 32% expect order levels to remain unchanged, and just 20% anticipate a decline, down from 33% in November.
The improved outlook comes despite weaker current shipping performance. Only 11% of metalformers reported higher average daily shipping levels in December, down from 21% in November. About 38% reported no change, while a majority—51%—said shipping levels declined, up from 40% in the prior month.
Labor indicators showed modest improvement. The share of respondents reporting workers on short time or layoff fell to 9% in December from 14% in November. At the same time, 29% of companies said they are expanding their workforce, up from 26% a month earlier.
The report also noted a slight increase in lead times, with 13% of manufacturers reporting longer lead times in December, compared with 9% in November.
Overall, the PMA data suggests that while near-term operational challenges persist, metalforming manufacturers are increasingly confident that demand and economic conditions will improve as 2026 begins.
